globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0630.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000472550100001
论文题名:
Use of Historical Data to Assess Regional Climate Change
作者: Lai, Yuchuan; Dzombak, David A.
通讯作者: Lai, Yuchuan
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:14, 页码:4299-4320
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North America ; Climate change ; Climate records ; Regression analysis ; Time series ; Trends
WOS关键词: EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE ; UNITED-STATES ; TIME-SERIES ; DAILY TEMPERATURE ; TERM TRENDS ; VARIABILITY ; NETWORK ; NORMALS ; SIGNAL
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Time series of historical annual average temperature, total precipitation, and extreme weather indices were constructed and analyzed for 103 (for temperature indices) and 115 (for precipitation indices) U.S. cities with climate records starting earlier than 1900. Mean rate of change and related 95% confidence bounds were calculated for each city using linear regression for the full periods of record. Box-Cox transformations of some time series of climate records were performed to address issues of non-normal distribution. Thirteen cities among the nine U.S. climate regions were selected and further evaluated with adequacy diagnoses and analyses for each month. The results show that many U.S. cities exhibit long-term historical increases in annual average temperature and precipitation, although there are spatial and temporal variations in the observed trends among the cities. Some cities in the Ohio Valley and Southeast regions exhibit decreasing or statistically nonsignificant increasing trends in temperatures. Many of the cities exhibiting statistically significant increases in precipitation are in the Northeast and Upper Midwest regions. The records for the cities are individually unique in both annual and monthly change, and cities within the same climate region sometimes exhibit substantially different changes. Within the full periods of record, discernible decade-long subtrends were observed for some cities; consequently, analysis of selected shorter periods can lead to inconclusive and biased results. These statistical analyses of constructed time series of city-specific long-term historical climate records provide detailed historical climate change information for cities across the United States.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142617
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作者单位: Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA

Recommended Citation:
Lai, Yuchuan,Dzombak, David A.. Use of Historical Data to Assess Regional Climate Change[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019-01-01,32(14):4299-4320
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