LAND-SURFACE FLUXES
; HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET
; ENERGY FLUXES
; UNITED-STATES
; MODEL
; TRENDS
; WATER
; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
; VARIABILITY
; INTENSITY
WOS学科分类:
Engineering, Environmental
; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
; Water Resources
WOS研究方向:
Engineering
; Geology
; Water Resources
英文摘要:
Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land-based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)-based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting-based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24-hr and 48-hr events. We infer that the GHCN-D and MACA-based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC-CSM1-1-m and GFDL-ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth-duration-frequency curve predicted an increase of 2-3 times in 24- and 48-h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios.
1.Virginia Tech, Dept Biol Syst Engn, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA 2.South Florida Water Management Dist, Groundwater Modeling Unit, W Palm Beach, FL USA 3.Univ Virginia, Dept Civil & Environm, Charlottesville, VA USA
Recommended Citation:
Sridhar, Venkataramana,Modi, Parthkumar,Billah, Mirza M.,et al. Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia[J]. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION,2019-01-01,55(4):780-799