Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred "within species" (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.
1.Univ Fed Goias, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Evolucao, Goiania, Go, Brazil 2.Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, Goiania, Go, Brazil 3.Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Brazilian Res Network Climate Change Rede Clima, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil 4.CSIC, Dept Biodiversidad & Biol Evolut, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Madrid, Spain 5.Univ Evora, Catedra Biodiversidade Rui Nabeiro, Evora, Portugal 6.Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Copenhagen, Denmark 7.Fundacao Brasileira Desenvolvimento Sustentavel, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Ortega, Jean C. G.,Machado, Nathalia,Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre,et al. Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change[J]. ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,2019-01-01