利用呼伦贝尔市下属16个气象台站的逐月平均气温和降水观测数据以及距平分析、M-K检验、Kriging差值、Morlet小波分析方法,分析了呼伦贝尔地区19602012年气温、降水变化特征,为水土保持、农业生产和环境保护提供科学的基础性研究成果。研究表明:研究期呼伦贝尔市平均温度为0.7。C,倾向率为0.43℃/10 a。各季节的平均温度均有增加趋势,夏季增温最为显著,冬季最差,气温低的地方增长率越高。全市的平均降水量为396 mm,未发现有减少趋势,降水从东向西依次递减,主要表现在10 a和26 a时间尺度上的周期性变化。随着气温的升高,10 a 尺度下的周期性变化趋于明显,降水年际间差距将有所升高。
英文摘要:
Mean monthly temperature and precipitation recorded in 16 meteorological stations subordinate to Hulun Buir city was analyzed. Anomaly analysis-K Mutation test, Kriging difference and the wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation change characteristics of Hulun Buir region from 19602012,to provide scientific fundamental research for conservation of water and soil, agricultural production and environmental protection. Result shows that: Hulun Buir city average temperature is 0. 7℃during the 53 years, linear growth rate is 0. 43℃/10 a. Each season's average temperature presents increasing trend; the warming in summer is most significant, while the winter is the worst. The growth rate is higher in the place with low temperature. The average precipitation of the whole city is 396 mm with no decreasing trend. Precipitation decreasing from east to west in turn mainly displays in 10 years and 25 years periodical change of scale. As the temperature increases, the periodical scale change of 10 years tends to be obvious and the annual precipitation range is rising.