基于地球系统模式FIO-ESM(The First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model),研究了在最高排放RCP8.5情景下18512100年海水温度、盐度和酸度的变化规律,综合考虑三者得到了声吸收系数的变化规律。 FIO-ESM模式输出结果表明,18512100年间大部分区域的海水温度出现不同程度地上升,海洋酸化现象明显,北极地区附近的海水盐度出现较大程度的下降。利用Francaais-Garriso经验公式计算海洋声吸收系数发现,如果只考虑酸度对声吸收系数的影响,声吸收系数的预报误差将达到40%以上。综合计算结果表明,随着全球气候变化的演进,全球海洋声吸收系数出现不同程度的下降,最大可达70%,即未来的海洋对于声波更加透明。
英文摘要:
The temperature,salinity and pH are the three key parameters that influence the sea water absorption of sound.The variations of these three parameters in the years 18512100are studied based on the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM)under the highest emission condition, RCP8.5.These three parameters are considered together to evaluate the evolvement of the oceanic sound absorption.The results from the FIO-ESM show that the temperates undergo increases in various degrees for the most parts of the ocean from 1851to 2100.Ocean acidification is significant.The salinity near the Arctic is reduced dramatically.The simulation results show that there will be a 40%relative error in the prediction if only the effect of the acidity is considered.The results also show that the sound absorption of the global ocean is reduced in various degrees,with some area decreasing as much as 70%,as the global climate change develops.