globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5913486
论文题名:
长江三角洲城市集群化发展对极端高温事件空间格局的影响
其他题名: Impact of urban clusters on spatial pattern of extreme high temperature events over Yangtze River Delta
作者: 谢志清1; 杜银2; 曾燕1; 高苹3; 苗茜1
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2017
卷: 62, 期:43499, 页码:365-376
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 城市群 ; 极端高温事件 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: urban agglomerations ; extreme high-temperature events ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 全球变暖和城市集群化的叠加效应, 导致长江三角洲城市群极端高温事件趋多增强, 给城市安全运行带来风险. 基于长序列气象观测资料和卫星遥感数据, 采用逐日百分位数法确定极端高温事件, 结合Chow检验、线性倾向原理和空间相似性分析, 研究了城市集群化发展对极端高温事件空间格局的影响. 结果表明: 2003~2013年是长江三角洲城市集群化发展时期, 城市群规模的年增长率高达1206.48 km~2/a, 2013年城市群热岛规模比2003年增加了18154.0 km~2, 极端高温事件出现异常的区域与城市群快速发展区一致. 特别是上海片区城市规模已超过极端高温事件气候平均态空间梯度31℃的最小距离, 区域性热岛空间跨度超过100 km, 导致高温强度比气候平均态高2.6~2.8℃, 高温日数偏多30~40 d. 极端高温事件异常与气象站Voronoi图单元内城市规模呈显著正相关, 在高温异常年2007, 2010和2013年的相关系数超过0.65. 不同规模城市对极端高温事件空间格局的影响差异明显, 以规模为492.8~932.6 km~2的城市影响最大. 虽然西太平洋副热带高压主导着城市群极端高温事件的年代际波动, 但2003~2013年城市集群化发展已经改变了长江三角洲极端高温事件空间格局. 以上研究结果可为正处在起步阶段的城市群发展规划提供参考.
英文摘要: The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration, the most prosperous region in China with hot and humid summers under the control of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development in recent decades. The combined effects of rapidly urbanization and global warming have resulted in increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme high temperature events (EHTEs), which poses significant challenges for risk management over dense urban populations and intensive economic activities areas. Here we present evidences of significant impacts of the massive urbanization process on the EHTEs based on long-term meteorological observations and satellite data, by applying daily percentile, Chow test, linear tendency and spatial similarity analysis methods. The result shows that massive urbanization occurred in the period of 2003-2013 at unprecedented speed and scale, in which the urban agglomeration expanded at the speed of 1206.48 km~2 per year. As a result, the core of urban heat island effects has enlarged about 18154.0 km~2 from 2003 to 2013 over Nanjing, Yangzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo, leading to a significant change of spatial pattern of the EHTEs over the Shanghai metropolitan area (SHMA). The extent of SHMA has been exceeding the minimum distance with spatial gradient more than 1°C of the EHTEs climatology, inducing strongest anomalies about 2.6-2.8°C in intensity and 30-40 d in duration compared with EHTEs climatology. Furthermore, significant correlation between the EHTEs anomalies in intensity and duration and urban areas in station-Voronoi, with the largest coefficients of about 0.65-0.68 in extreme cases of 2007, 2010 and 2013, shows that growing size of the city can amplify EHTEs. There is a significant positive correlation between the EHTE intensity/duration and urban area. This suggests that the growing size of the cities tends to amplify and extend the length of EHTEs. Through a linear regression analysis, we noted that the strongest impacts appeared in those cities with area of about 492.8-932.6 km~2. Although the WPSH anchors the EHTE inter-annual fluctuation, massive urbanization has played an important role in modulating the EHTE spatial pattern over the YRD region. From a pure dynamical point view, the WPSH circulation system is the fundamental driving force of the extreme high temperature events in the eastern China. However, owing to the superimposed effect of global warming and heated island, the EHTEs became more frequent and stronger and lasted longer over the YRD urban agglomeration in the past decades. Under the similar condition of the WPSH, the EHTE days in 2003-2013 were 1.5 times as large as those in 1959-1978. There is a significant positive linear trend in EHTE days and maximum temperatures from 1979 to 2014. The change of spatial pattern of EHTEs is to a large extent caused by rapid urbanization over the YRD region. Thus future extreme high temperature risk assessment should focus not only on the strength and duration changes but also on the spatial pattern change. It is anticipated that the current trend of EHTE frequency and strength will be magnified with continuing global warming and urban agglomeration. Changes in strength, duration and spatial pattern of the EHTEs will no doubt induce more complex, adverse effects on environment, human health and economics. The diagnosis tool above may be easily implemented to assess the climate effect of the urbanization over other major metropolitan regions in China.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152710
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.江苏省气候中心, 南京, 江苏 210009, 中国
2.南京信息工程大学,气候动力学研究中心, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
3.江苏省气象服务中心, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国

Recommended Citation:
谢志清,杜银,曾燕,等. 长江三角洲城市集群化发展对极端高温事件空间格局的影响[J]. 科学通报,2017-01-01,62(43499):365-376
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