globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5241653
论文题名:
大豆生育期内气候资源变化特征及未来情景预估
其他题名: Variation characteristics and prospective estimation of climate resources during soybean growth period in Jiangsu
作者: 于庚康1; 徐敏1; 徐经纬2; 高苹1; 鲍婧1
刊名: 气象科学
ISSN: 1009-0827
出版年: 2014
卷: 34, 期:4, 页码:450-456
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 大豆 ; 农业气候资源 ; 情景预估
英文关键词: Climatic change ; Soybean ; Agricultural climatic resources ; Scenario estimation
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 用江苏淮北20个气象台站1961-2012年气象观测资料与RegCM4区域气候模式,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下的模拟数据,应用数理统计方法,分析和预估了大豆生育期内光、温、水等农业气候资源的变化特征。结果表明:近52 a,≥10 ℃ 活动积温各年均在3 100 ℃?d 以上。1980s 变化较为平稳,1990s 上升趋势显著,且年际波动较明显。日照时数与太阳总辐射呈显著下降趋势,线性趋势分别达到了-4.9 h?a~(-1)、- 7.6 MJ?m~(-2)? a~(-1),2000年之后基本上都低于气候平均值。降水量在1960s呈现下降趋势,1970s、1980s 波动较平稳,1990s 后期开始显著上升,水分盈亏是以正值为主。在未来两种气候情景下,光、温、水资源的年际波动都比较大,气候极端事件可能将增多。活动积温为正距平,且呈现增加趋势,太阳净辐射也为正距平,水分盈亏以正距平为主。
英文摘要: By using observation data from 20 meteorological stations during 1961 - 2012 in Huaibei,Jiangsu,and simulation data with RegCM4 regional climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios,the variation characteristics of agricultural climatic resources like light,thermal and water conditions during soybeans growth period were analyzed with mathematical statistics. Results show that in recent 52 years,the annual accumulated temperature in the case of ≥10℃ had been average over 3 100 ℃. It remained relatively stable in the 1980s,but significantly ascended in the 1990s with obvious interannual fluctuations. Both sunshine duration and global radiation decrease evidently by - 4.9 h/a and - 7.6 MJ/m~2/ a,respectively,so tht they tended to be lower than the climatological mean values after 2000.Precipitation decrease in the 1960s;in 1970s and 1980s it was relatively stable,while in the late 1990s,it began to increase with positive water budget. Under the two future climate scenarios,light,thermal and water conditions will interannually fluctuate greatly,extreme weather events will be more frequent and active accumulated temperature will go up with a positive anomaly,so do net solar radiation and water budget. The research is beneficial to soybean production in Huaibei,Jiangsu province,based on better adaptation to climatic change and optimal selection of climate resources.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156632
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.江苏省气象局, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国
2.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
于庚康,徐敏,徐经纬,等. 大豆生育期内气候资源变化特征及未来情景预估[J]. 气象科学,2014-01-01,34(4):450-456
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