DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020
论文题名: Future streamflow regime changes in the United States: Assessment using functional classification
作者: Brunner M.I. ; Melsen L.A. ; Newman A.J. ; Wood A.W. ; Clark M.P.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 8 起始页码: 3951
结束页码: 3966
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Classification (of information)
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Stream flow
; Time series
; Water management
; Water supply
; Catchment classifications
; Classification scheme
; Climate change impact assessments
; Functional classification
; General circulation model
; Temporal information
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Water management strategies
; Climate change
; assessment method
; catchment
; classification
; climate change
; cluster analysis
; extreme event
; hydrograph
; hydrological regime
; model validation
; seasonality
; streamflow
; time series analysis
; Rocky Mountains
; United States
英文摘要: Streamflow regimes are changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change, with potential impacts on flow variability and the seasonality of extremes. However, not all types of regimes are going to change in the same way. Climate change impact assessments can therefore benefit from identifying classes of catchments with similar streamflow regimes. Traditional catchment classification approaches have focused on specific meteorological and/or streamflow indices, usually neglecting the temporal information stored in the data. The aim of this study is 2-fold: (1) develop a catchment classification scheme that enables incorporation of such temporal information and (2) use the scheme to evaluate changes in future flow regimes. We use the developed classification scheme, which relies on a functional data representation, to cluster a large set of catchments in the conterminous United States (CONUS) according to their mean annual hydrographs. We identify five regime classes that summarize the behavior of catchments in the CONUS: (1) intermittent regime, (2) weak winter regime, (3) strong winter regime, (4) New Year's regime, and (5) melt regime. Our results show that these spatially contiguous classes are not only similar in terms of their regimes, but also their flood and drought behavior as well as their physiographical and meteorological characteristics. We therefore deem the functional regime classes valuable for a number of applications going beyond change assessments, including model validation studies or predictions of streamflow characteristics in ungauged basins. To assess future regime changes, we use simulated discharge time series obtained from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model driven with meteorological time series generated by five general circulation models. A comparison of the future regime classes derived from these simulations with current classes shows that robust regime changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These changes in mountainous, upstream regions may require adaption of water management strategies to ensure sufficient water supply in dependent downstream regions. © Author(s) 2020. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162621
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Brunner, M.I., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Melsen, L.A., Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Newman, A.J., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Wood, A.W., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Clark, M.P., University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Lab, Canmore, AB, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Brunner M.I.,Melsen L.A.,Newman A.J.,et al. Future streamflow regime changes in the United States: Assessment using functional classification[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(8)