DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020
论文题名: Nonstationary stochastic rain type generation: Accounting for climate drivers
作者: Benoit L. ; Vrac M. ; Mariethoz G.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 5 起始页码: 2841
结束页码: 2854
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Embedded systems
; Stochastic systems
; Storms
; Time series
; Emission scenario
; Evaluation results
; Mesoscale Convective System
; Multiple-point statistics
; Non-stationarities
; Regional climate modeling
; Stochastic approach
; Stochastic weather generator
; Rain
; carbon emission
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; regional climate
; time series
; weather forecasting
; Germany
英文摘要: At subdaily resolution, rain intensity exhibits a strong variability in space and time, which is favorably modeled using stochastic approaches. This strong variability is further enhanced because of the diversity of processes that produce rain (e.g., frontal storms, mesoscale convective systems and local convection), which results in a multiplicity of space time patterns embedded into rain fields and in turn leads to the nonstationarity of rain statistics. To account for this nonstationarity in the context of stochastic weather generators and therefore preserve the relationships between rainfall properties and climatic drivers, we propose to resort to rain type simulation. In this paper, we develop a new approach based on multiple-point statistics to simulate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates. The rain type simulation method is tested by a cross-validation procedure using a 17-year-long rain type time series defined over central Germany. Evaluation results indicate that the proposed approach successfully captures the relationships between rain types and meteorological covariates. This leads to a proper simulation of rain type occurrence, persistence and transitions. After validation, the proposed approach is applied to generate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates simulated by a regional climate model under an RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) emission scenario. Results indicate that, by the end of the century, the distribution of rain types could be modified over the area of interest, with an increased frequency of convective- and frontal-like rains at the expense of more stratiform events. © 2020 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162680
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Benoit, L., Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Vrac, M., Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE-IPSL), CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, Orme des Merisiers, France; Mariethoz, G., Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Benoit L.,Vrac M.,Mariethoz G.. Nonstationary stochastic rain type generation: Accounting for climate drivers[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(5)