DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1741-2019
论文题名: Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers
作者: Hnilica J. ; Hanel M. ; Puš V.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 3 起始页码: 1741
结束页码: 1749
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Large dataset
; Statistics
; Systematic errors
; Climate change impact assessments
; Climate model simulations
; Correlation structure
; Cross and auto correlation
; Dependence structures
; Regional climate model simulation
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical properties
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; data set
; downscaling
; error analysis
; global climate
; multivariate analysis
; outlier
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; simulation
英文摘要: Simulations of regional or global climate models are often used for climate change impact assessment. To eliminate systematic errors, which are inherent to all climate model simulations, a number of post-processing (statistical downscaling) methods have been proposed recently. In addition to basic statistical properties of simulated variables, some of these methods also consider a dependence structure between or within variables. In the present paper we assess the changes in cross- and auto-correlation structures of daily precipitation in six regional climate model simulations. In addition the effect of outliers is explored making a distinction between ordinary outliers (i.e. values exceptionally small or large) and dependence outliers (values deviating from dependence structures). It is demonstrated that correlation estimates can be strongly influenced by a few outliers even in large datasets. In turn, any statistical downscaling method relying on sample correlation can therefore provide misleading results. An exploratory procedure is proposed to detect the dependence outliers in multivariate data and to quantify their impact on correlation structures. © Author(s) 2019. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163003
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Hnilica, J., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic; Hanel, M., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic; Puš, V., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Hnilica J.,Hanel M.,Puš V.. Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(3)