DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019
论文题名: Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model
作者: Ehmele F. ; Kunz M.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 1083
结束页码: 1102
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Distribution functions
; Flood control
; Floods
; Radiosondes
; Rain
; Risk assessment
; Stochastic systems
; Wind effects
; Atmospheric conditions
; Extreme precipitation
; High spatial resolution
; Numerical weather model
; Orographic precipitation
; Radiosonde observations
; Statistical distribution function
; Stochastic simulations
; Stochastic models
; climate modeling
; complex terrain
; convection
; extreme event
; hydrological modeling
; insurance industry
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; radiosonde
; stochasticity
; wind field
; Germany
英文摘要: Various fields of application, such as risk assessments of the insurance industry or the design of flood protection systems, require reliable precipitation statistics in high spatial resolution, including estimates for events with high return periods. Observations from point stations, however, lack of spatial representativeness, especially over complex terrain. Current numerical weather models are not capable of running simulations over thousands of years. This paper presents a new method for the stochastic simulation of widespread precipitation based on a linear theory describing orographic precipitation and additional functions that consider synoptically driven rainfall and embedded convection in a simplified way. The model is initialized by various statistical distribution functions describing prevailing atmospheric conditions such as wind vector, moisture content, or stability, estimated from radiosonde observations for a limited sample of observed heavy rainfall events. The model is applied for the stochastic simulation of heavy rainfall over the complex terrain of southwestern Germany. It is shown that the model provides reliable precipitation fields despite its simplicity. The differences between observed and simulated rainfall statistics are small, being of the order of only ±10 % for return periods of up to 1000 years. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163038
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Ehmele, F., Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany; Kunz, M., Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany, Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), KIT - Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Ehmele F.,Kunz M.. Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(2)