DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-829-2019
论文题名: Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection
作者: Blanchet J. ; Paquet E. ; Vaittinada Ayar P. ; Penot D.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 829
结束页码: 849
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Distribution functions
; Hazards
; Mapping
; Rain gages
; Runoff
; Cross validation
; Cumulative distribution function
; Gamma distribution
; Marginal distribution
; Rainfall distribution
; Station location
; Statistical distribution
; Thin plate spline
; Rain
; catchment
; conceptual framework
; hazard assessment
; inhomogeneity
; model validation
; precipitable water
; precipitation intensity
; raingauge
; regional climate
; seasonality
; France
英文摘要: We propose an objective framework for selecting rainfall hazard mapping models in a region starting from rain gauge data. Our methodology is based on the evaluation of several goodness-of-fit scores at regional scale in a cross-validation framework, allowing us to assess the goodness-of-fit of the rainfall cumulative distribution functions within the region but with a particular focus on their tail. Cross-validation is applied both to select the most appropriate statistical distribution at station locations and to validate the mapping of these distributions. To illustrate the framework, we consider daily rainfall in the Ardèche catchment in the south of France, a 2260 km2 catchment with strong inhomogeneity in rainfall distribution. We compare several classical marginal distributions that are possibly mixed over seasons and weather patterns to account for the variety of climatological processes triggering precipitation, and several classical mapping methods. Among those tested, results show a preference for a mixture of Gamma distribution over seasons and weather patterns, with parameters interpolated with thin plate spline across the region. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163050
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Blanchet, J., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Paquet, E., EDF - DTG, 21 Avenue de l'Europe BP 41, Grenoble Cedex 9, 38040, France; Vaittinada Ayar, P., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Penot, D., EDF - DTG, 21 Avenue de l'Europe BP 41, Grenoble Cedex 9, 38040, France
Recommended Citation:
Blanchet J.,Paquet E.,Vaittinada Ayar P.,et al. Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(2)