DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018
论文题名: An assessment of trends and potential future changes in groundwater-baseflow drought based on catchment response times
作者: Hellwig J. ; Stahl K.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 12 起始页码: 6209
结束页码: 6224
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Drought
; Groundwater
; Groundwater resources
; Hazards
; Hydrogeology
; Stream flow
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Water supply
; Drought characteristics
; Hydrogeological conditions
; Hydrological droughts
; Long term observations
; Precipitation change
; Summer precipitation
; Surface water and groundwaters
; Winter precipitation
; Runoff
; assessment method
; baseflow
; catchment
; climate effect
; drought
; future prospect
; groundwater
; headwater
; hydrogeology
; hydrological cycle
; hydrological response
; natural hazard
; trend analysis
; Germany
英文摘要: Drought is an important natural hazard with large impacts on society. Changes in drought characteristics have been studied for different parts of the hydrological cycle, but insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured due to the lack of long-term observations and large heterogeneity of hydrogeological conditions. Moreover, predicted future changes in precipitation are uncertain and have a lagged effect on streamflow and groundwater. We investigated past changes and potential future changes in catchment baseflow as a reflection of groundwater drought for 338 headwater catchments across Germany based on catchments' characteristic response times. First, baseflow dynamics as a proxy of groundwater storage and outflow on a catchment scale were derived from streamflow records and related to precipitation input. Second, past trends in baseflow minima were calculated and attributed to climate and catchment controls. Last, response times and the timing of yearly baseflow minima were combined into estimates of the sensitivity to future precipitation changes. Baseflow response times of the studied headwaters are heterogenous across Germany, ranging from a few months to several years, and depend significantly on hydrogeological conditions. Few significant trends were found in past baseflow minima, and trends are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Based on the assumption of a typical regional scenario of increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer precipitation, increases in hydrological drought hazard or no changes are projected for most parts of Germany. Catchments with longer response times can buffer interannual precipitation shifts, whereas catchments with fractured rocks are sensitive to summer precipitation decreases. These results urge for a surface water and groundwater management based on local groundwater response to precipitation and help to assess impacts of climate change on overall water supply. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163122
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Hellwig, J., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, 79098, Germany; Stahl, K., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, 79098, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Hellwig J.,Stahl K.. An assessment of trends and potential future changes in groundwater-baseflow drought based on catchment response times[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(12)