DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03884-2
论文题名: Calculations on stopping time and return period
作者: Chen B. ; Kou Y. ; Zhao D. ; Wu F. ; Liu S. ; Chia A. ; Wang L.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 101, 期: 2 起始页码: 537
结束页码: 550
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Return period
; Stochastic process
; Stopping time
; Storm surge
英文关键词: coastal protection
; extreme event
; Markov chain
; return period
; statistical distribution
; stochasticity
; storm surge
; wave height
英文摘要: Establishing protective projects such as breakwaters and flood barriers is the key to preventing marine disasters caused by extreme sea conditions. One of the core technical problems in implementing these large-scale projects is how to determine the fortification criteria reasonably. In the past, research based on random variables studied the determined state of time for the stochastic process. For the first time, this paper studies the statistical characteristics of ocean environment elements from both the time and space with the real perspective of the stochastic process and introduces the concept of stopping time in stochastic processes into the analysis of storm surge. The relationship between the stopping time and threshold selection for the measured data is discussed. The relationship between the wave front displacement and the time exceeding the threshold λ is given as τ= inf { t≥ 0 : ξ(t) > λ}. When the distribution is symmetrical and has Markov characteristics, there is P(τ≤ t) = 2 P(ξ(t) > λ). Additionally, the relationship between the calculation and the return period of the wave height is given. It is proved that the stopping time N= inf { n≥ 1 : Xn> x} obeys the geometric distribution, and the expectation of the stopping time is the return period in the ocean engineering. Through the analysis of the stopping time parameters, the rationality of applying the Gumbel distribution in extreme sea conditions for calculating return period is given. With the relationship between the service life of marine engineering and the commonly used parameters, the average life expectancy of offshore engineering is: ET = 5. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/168427
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Engineering, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States; Dornsife College, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States; California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States; Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, United States; Dataquest.io, Boise, ID, United States; School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Recommended Citation:
Chen B.,Kou Y.,Zhao D.,et al. Calculations on stopping time and return period[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,101(2)