DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04836-0
论文题名: Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)
作者: Hidalgo C.A. ; Vega J.A.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Landslide
; Probabilistic assessment
; Risk
; River basins
; Vulnerability riverbeds
英文摘要: Landslides are natural hazards that represent a huge economic burden and cause the loss of human life around the world. In countries such as Colombia, the mass movement events that cause the highest number of deaths and economic losses are often related to river or stream flooding caused by landslides in basins. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools that estimate and assess landslide risk in such areas. This study presents a methodology to assess the risk associated with landslides in streams or river basins. The hazard posed by landslides is evaluated considering probabilistic methods that include the effects of rainfall and earthquakes. In addition, this study assesses the probability of a sliding mass reaching riverbeds and the probability of riverbed obstruction. Vulnerability is then estimated using impact curves based on the obstruction height. Finally, risk is estimated as the probability that economic losses occur along the riverbed. This methodology is based on probability methods, such as the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and the punctual estimates method (PEM). The methodology was applied in the La Liboriana River basin, in the municipality of Salgar in the northwestern Colombian Andes. On May 18, 2015, this mountainous and tropical area suffered a flash flood caused by landslides in the basin, which killed more than 100 inhabitants and caused infrastructure damage and significant economic losses. The results suggest that the proposed method coherently assesses the hazard posed by landslides and that the expected losses are comparable with the records from previous events. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169074
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Program of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Medellín, Carrera 87 N° 30 – 65 (Bloque 4), Medellín, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Hidalgo C.A.,Vega J.A.. Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01