| DOI: | 10.2172/1008117
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| 报告号: | SAND2010-6203
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| 报告题名: | Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions. |
| 作者: | Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik
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| 出版年: | 2010
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| 发表日期: | 2010-09-01
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| 总页数: | 44
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 海洋环流
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| 主题词: | OCEAN CIRCULATION
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| 英文摘要: | Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1008117
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/39692
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1008117.pdf（1459KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Safta, Cosmin,Debusschere, Bert J.,Najm, Habib N.,et al. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.. 2010-01-01.
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