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The Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest coral reef system, has lost half of its coral cover over the past 40 years^{1, 2, 3}. The latest five-yearly analysis of the condition of the GBR, released in August 2014, concluded that its condition is poor and deteriorating, and that reductions in all stressors are required to improve its state³. The Australian government has correctly identified climate change as the greatest threat to the GBR, although ironically Australia is the world's largest exporter of seaborne fossil fuels, and also has the world's highest per capita emissions of greenhouse gases. So far, global warming has triggered two major bouts of coral bleaching on the GBR, in 1998 and 2002, causing extensive and widespread loss of corals⁴, and there is growing concern for the future impacts of inevitable ocean acidification, extreme weather events and rising sea levels³. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has expressed concern over the decline of the outstanding universal value of the GBR World Heritage Area (WHA), particularly from the rapid industrialization of the Queensland coastline and the development of ports for export of unprecedented amounts of fossil fuels. The World Heritage Committee is threatening to place the GBR on the World Heritage 'In Danger' list in 2015⁵. Here we briefly outline why the GBR is in decline and provide recommendations for securing its future in the face of rapid climate change that are broadly applicable to coral reefs and many natural WHAs worldwide.

The GBR's diverse array of ecosystems is being affected by the cumulative impacts of multiple human drivers: unsustainable fishing, agricultural runoff, coastal development, rapid climate change and a burgeoning fossil-fuel industry. Broadly, these represent a historical sequence of compounding pressures that are steadily escalating, and set to grow rapidly in the future under current policies (Fig. 1). Importantly, the capacity of the GBR to cope with future climate change will depend on all of these drivers being addressed³.

Observed (black) and projected (red) driver, under current policy settings, are shown from 1950–2050. a, Growth in agricultural output and coal production in Queensland. b, Growth in registered recreational boats and population in Queensland. The temporary drop in coal production in 2011 was caused by floods. Data from refs 3,7,19,20.

The establishment of the GBR Marine Park in 1975, then by far the largest in the world, was an outstanding and novel achievement resulting from widespread public concern that the Reef was being threatened by plans for oil drilling and limestone mining. The enabling legislation, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Act 1975, explicitly prioritizes protection and conservation as the overriding objective¹⁴, which, until recently, has been the fundamental tenet of its governance. The Marine Park Authority was placed in charge of virtually all activities within its bounds, except for shipping and fisheries management. In 2004, the marine park was rezoned to increase no-fishing zones from 5% to 33% of the total area. Although the rezoning provides some fisheries benefits¹⁵, it affords little or no protection from the impacts of most other escalating drivers, including climate change.

Today, the policy emphasis is less on protection and conservation, and more about generating sustainable wealth from the region¹⁶. In response to UNESCO's concerns, the Australian and Queensland governments drafted the Reef 2050 Long-term Sustainability Plan^{1, 7} and released it for public comments. The plan emphasizes 'multiple use' of the region and its catchment, and although it contains many positive elements, its underlying economic objective is the creation of the world's largest export industry for coal and coal seam gas¹⁴. The Australian Academy of Science concluded that the draft plan was inadequate to achieve the goal of restoring or even maintaining the diminished outstanding universal value of the GBR¹⁸. Unfortunately, the final Plan, released in March 2015, remains short-sighted, given its aspiration to provide an overarching framework for the next 35 years. Critically, the revised plan lacks any action on climate change, identified by scientists and the government³ as the key threat to the GBR owing to the impact of global warming and ocean acidification.

Here we propose an action plan to restore the outstanding universal value of the GBR to its condition at the time of inscription as a WHA in 1981. First, the former emphasis on conservation and protection must be reinstated, recognizing that it will not be possible to develop and operate the largest coal ports in the world along the edge of the GBR WHA over the next 60 years without causing permanent damage to the region. Second, Australia should play a more active role in transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and rejoin the global community in tackling dangerous climate change. The era of thermal coal is coming to an end and efforts to prolong it by opening new coal mines are too risky for the GBR and for climate-sensitive ecosystems elsewhere. Third, we encourage a permanent legislative ban of sea dumping of dredge spoil, both capital and maintenance, within the WHA. Fourth, the environmental impact assessment processes for new developments should be reformulated to ensure that all options to avoid impacts are comprehensively and transparently evaluated and independently assessed, and that offsets are used only as a last resort. Fifth, the GBR Marine Park Authority needs to be reinstated as the lead agency responsible for all aspects of the GBR, including fishing and port activities. The GBR Marine Park should be expanded to include ports, as a new type of zone, thereby providing more effective and integrated management over areas currently adjoining the marine park and fulfilling the mandate of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Act 1975 for sustainable management of the Great Barrier Reef Region. Finally, we suggest there is an urgent need to develop and adequately fund a 50-year plan for use of the catchment, designed to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and agricultural runoff.

The future of the GBR depends on the Australian and Queensland governments taking their responsibilities more seriously than recent decisions, such as the relaxation of tree-clearing laws in Queensland, the weakening of renewable energy targets, subsidizing the extraction of fossil fuels and scrapping a price on carbon emissions. The Australian public and the global community need to make it clear that they want policy actions to ensure the outstanding universal value of the GBR is restored for future generations.

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