DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0757.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025671801
论文题名: Striking seasonality in the secular warming of the northern continents: Structure and mechanisms
作者: Nigam S. ; Thomas N.P. ; Ruiz-Barradas A. ; Weaver S.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 16 起始页码: 6521
结束页码: 6541
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Greenhouse gases
; Phase space methods
; Cost effective opportunity
; Intergovernmental panel for climate changes
; Model evaluation/performance
; Seasonal variability
; Surface air temperatures
; Surface temperatures
; Thermodynamical process
; Trends
; Climate change
英文摘要: The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)-a key secular warming signal- exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intraensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48806
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States; Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nigam S.,Thomas N.P.,Ruiz-Barradas A.,et al. Striking seasonality in the secular warming of the northern continents: Structure and mechanisms[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(16)