DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0490.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020097676
论文题名: The ENSO transition probabilities
作者: Conti G. ; Navarra A. ; Tribbia J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 13 起始页码: 4951
结束页码: 4964
语种: 英语
英文摘要: ENSO is investigated here by considering it as a transition from different states. Transition probability matrices can be defined to describe the evolution of ENSO in this way. Sea surface temperature anomalies are classified into four categories, or states, and the probability to move from one state to another has been calculated for both observations and a simulation from a GCM. This could be useful for understanding and diagnosing general circulation models elucidating the mechanisms that govern ENSO in models. Furthermore, these matrices have been used to define a predictability index of ENSO based on the entropy concept introduced by Shannon. The index correctly identifies the emergence of the spring predictability barrier and the seasonal variations of the transition probabilities. The transition probability matrices could also be used to formulate a basic prediction model for ENSO that was tested here on a case study. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48861
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Conti G.,Navarra A.,Tribbia J.. The ENSO transition probabilities[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(13)