DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-831-2012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84860234898
论文题名: Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core
作者: Alessio S. ; Vivaldo G. ; Taricco C. ; Ghil M.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2012
卷: 8, 期: 2 起始页码: 831
结束页码: 839
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: algorithm
; anthropogenic effect
; depositional environment
; error analysis
; foraminifera
; industrialization
; isotopic ratio
; marine sediment
; numerical model
; oxygen isotope
; paleoceanography
; sediment core
; Mediterranean Sea
英文摘要: We evaluate the contribution of natural variability to the modern decrease in foraminiferal δ 18O by relying on a 2200-yr-long, high-resolution record of oxygen isotopic ratio from a Central Mediterranean sediment core. Pre-industrial values are used to train and test two sets of algorithms that are able to forecast the natural variability in δ 18O over the last 150 yr. These algorithms are based on autoregressive models and neural networks, respectively; they are applied separately to each of the δ 18O series' significant variability components, rather than to the complete series. The separate components are extracted by singular-spectrum analysis and have narrow-band spectral content, which reduces the forecast error. By comparing the sum of the predicted low-frequency components to its actual values during the Industrial Era, we deduce that the natural contribution to these components of the modern δ 18O variation decreased gradually, until it reached roughly 40%, as early as the end of the 1970s. © 2012 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49583
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Alessio S.,Vivaldo G.,Taricco C.,et al. Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core[J]. Climate of the Past,2012-01-01,8(2)