DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0353.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957711819
论文题名: Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture
作者: Herein M. ; Márfy J. ; Drótos G. ; Tél T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 1 起始页码: 259
结束页码: 272
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Dynamics
; Time series
; Climate variability
; Ensembles
; Forcing
; Intermediate complexity
; Internal variability
; Natural distribution
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; atmospheric structure
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; conceptual framework
; ensemble forecasting
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; probability
; teleconnection
英文摘要: A time series resulting from a single initial condition is shown to be insufficient for quantifying the internal variability in a climate model, and thus one is unable to make meaningful climate projections based on it. The authors argue that the natural distribution, obtained from an ensemble of trajectories differing solely in their initial conditions, of the snapshot attractor corresponding to a particular forcing scenario should be determined in order to quantify internal variability and to characterize any instantaneous state of the system in the future. Furthermore, as a simple measure of internal variability of any particular variable of the model, the authors suggest using its instantaneous ensemble standard deviation. These points are illustrated with the intermediatecomplexity climate model Planet Simulator forced by a CO2 scenario, with a 40-member ensemble. In particular, the leveling off of the time dependence of any ensemble average is shown to provide a much clearer indication of reaching a steady state than any property of single time series. Shifts in ensemble averages are indicative of climate changes. The dynamical character of such changes is illustrated by hysteresis-like curves obtained by plotting the ensemble average surface temperature versus the CO2 concentration. The internal variability is found to be the most pronounced on small geographical scales. The traditionally used 30-yr temporal averages are shown to be considerably different from the corresponding ensemble averages. Finally, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, related to the teleconnection paradigm, is also investigated. It is found that the NAO time series strongly differs in any individual realization from each other and from the ensemble average, and climatic trends can be extracted only from the latter. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50193
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary; Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
Herein M.,Márfy J.,Drótos G.,et al. Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(1)