DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0034.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959512385
论文题名: Tropical temperature and precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions: Observations and AMIP5 simulations
作者: Meyer A. ; Folini D. ; Lohmann U. ; Peter T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 4 起始页码: 1325
结束页码: 1338
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Nickel
; Tropics
; Volcanoes
; Correlation coefficient
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Natural variability
; Southern oscillation
; Surface air temperatures
; Temperature response
; Tropical temperatures
; Volcanic eruptions
; Atmospheric temperature
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; time series analysis
; volcanic eruption
; Central Luzon
; Chiapas
; El Chichon
; Luzon
; Mexico [North America]
; Mount Pinatubo
; Philippines
; Zambales
英文摘要: Tropical land mean surface air temperature and precipitation responses to the eruptions of El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, as simulated by the atmosphere-only GCMs (AMIP) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are examined and compared to three observational datasets. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was statistically separated from the volcanic signal in all time series. Focusing on the ENSO signal, it was found that the 17 investigatedAMIP models successfully simulate the observed 4-month delay in the temperature responses to the ENSO phase but simulate somewhat too-fast precipitation responses during the El Niño onset stage. The observed correlation between temperature and ENSO phase (correlation coefficient of 0.75) is generally captured well by the models (simulated correlation of 0.71 and ensemble means of 0.61-0.83). For precipitation, mean correlations with the ENSO phase are 20.59 for observations and 20.53 for the models, with individual ensemble members having correlations as low as 20.26. Observed, ENSO-removed tropical land temperature and precipitation decrease by about 0.35 K and 0.25 mm day-1 after the Pinatubo eruption, while no significant decrease in either variable was observed after El Chichón. The AMIP models generally capture this behavior despite a tendency to overestimate the precipitation response to El Chichón. Scatter is substantial, both across models and across ensemble members of individual models. Natural variability thus may still play a prominent role despite the strong volcanic forcing. © 2016 American Meteorological. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50317
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Meyer A.,Folini D.,Lohmann U.,et al. Tropical temperature and precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions: Observations and AMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(4)