DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0395.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959513033
论文题名: Increased variability in the early winter subarctic North American atmospheric circulation
作者: Overland J.E. ; Wang M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 18 起始页码: 7297
结束页码: 7305
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Meteorology
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Arctic Oscillation
; Atmospheric circulation
; Stationary waves
; Teleconnections
; Climatology
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric circulation
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; standing wave
; subarctic region
; teleconnection
; winter
; Arctic
; Greenland
; United States
英文摘要: The last decade shows increased variability in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index for December. Over eastern North America such increased variability depended on amplification of the climatological longwave atmospheric circulation pattern. Recent negative magnitudes of the AO have increased geopotential thickness west of Greenland and cold weather in the central and eastern United States. Although the increased variance in the AO is statistically significant based on 9-yr running standard deviations from 1950 to 2014, one cannot necessarily robustly attribute the increase to steady changes in external sources (sea temperatures, sea ice) rather than a chaotic view of internal atmospheric variability; this is due to a relatively short record and a review of associated atmospheric dynamics. Although chaotic internal variability dominates the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, Arctic thermodynamic influence can reinforce the regional geopotential height pattern. Such reinforcement suggests a conditional or state dependence on whether an Arctic influence will impact subarctic severe weather, based on different circulation regimes. A key conclusion is the importance of recent variability over potential trends in Arctic and subarctic atmospheric circulation. Continued thermodynamic Arctic changes are suggested as a Bayesian prior leading to a probabilistic approach for potential subarctic weather linkages and the potential for improving seasonal forecasts. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50358
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Overland J.E.,Wang M.. Increased variability in the early winter subarctic North American atmospheric circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(18)