DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921668262
论文题名: Uncertainty in twenty-first-century CMIP5 sea level projections
作者: Little C.M. ; Horton R.M. ; Kopp R.E. ; Oppenheimer M. ; Yip S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 2 起始页码: 838
结束页码: 852
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Risk management
; Sea level
; Uncertainty analysis
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global mean sea levels
; Internal variability
; Model uncertainties
; Sources of uncertainty
; Surface air temperatures
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; sea level change
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; New York [New York (STT)]
; New York [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50409
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers Energy Institute, and Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Little C.M.,Horton R.M.,Kopp R.E.,et al. Uncertainty in twenty-first-century CMIP5 sea level projections[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)