DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00545.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922774244
论文题名: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models
作者: Andrews T. ; Gregory J.M. ; Webb M.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1630
结束页码: 1648
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Feedback
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global temperature change
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface air temperatures
; Surface temperature changes
; Time-varying feedback
; Top of the atmospheres
; Climate change
; air temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; global change
; oceanic general circulation model
; radiative forcing
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface air temperature change is nonlinear in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined, the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative (i.e., the effective climate sensitivity increases) as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM mean, approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the tropics (30°N-30°S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific, where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea surface temperatures and sea ice prescribed from its AOGCM counter part, each AGCM reproduces the timevarying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. It is also demonstrated that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but nonzero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~-0.5W m-2 in HadCM3). © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50416
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Andrews T.,Gregory J.M.,Webb M.J.. The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)