globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00502.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945941711
论文题名:
Development of a dynamics-based statistical prediction model for the Changma onset
作者: Park H.-L.; Seo K.-H.; Son J.-H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:17
起始页码: 6647
结束页码: 6666
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Dynamics ; Forecasting ; Mechanical waves ; Oceanography ; Surface waters ; Wave propagation ; Anticyclonic anomalies ; Enhanced convection ; Monsoons ; ROSSBY wave propagation ; Sea surface temperature anomalies ; Seasonal prediction ; Statistical prediction model ; Upper troposphere ; Tropics ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; diabatic process ; Rossby wave ; sea surface temperature ; temperature anomaly ; trade wind ; wave propagation ; weather forecasting ; Korea ; Pacific Ocean ; South China Sea
英文摘要: The timing of the changma onset has high impacts on the Korean Peninsula, yet its seasonal prediction remains a great challenge because the changma undergoes various influences from the tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes. In this study, a dynamics-based statistical prediction model for the changma onset is proposed. This model utilizes three predictors of slowly varying sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the northern tropical central Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific occurring in the preceding spring season. SSTAs associated with each predictor persist until June and have an effect on the changma onset by inducing an anticyclonic anomaly to the southeast of the Korean Peninsula earlier than the climatological changma onset date. The persisting negative SSTAs over the northern tropical central Pacific and accompanying anomalous trade winds induce enhanced convection over the far-western tropical Pacific; in turn, these induce a cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. The diabatic heating and cooling tendency related to the North Atlantic dipolar SSTAs induces downstream Rossby wave propagation in the upper troposphere, developing a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly to the south of the Korean Peninsula. A westerly wind anomaly at around 45°N resulting from the developing positive SSTAs over the North Pacific directly reduces the strength of the Okhotsk high and gives rise to an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. With the dynamics-based statistical prediction model, it is demonstrated that the changma onset has considerable predictability of r = 0.73 for the period from 1982 to 2014. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50474
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Park H.-L.,Seo K.-H.,Son J.-H.. Development of a dynamics-based statistical prediction model for the Changma onset[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(17)
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