DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00295.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945296640
论文题名: How robust are trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation derived from observed stratospheric temperatures?
作者: Ossó A. ; Sola Y. ; Rosenlof K. ; Hassler B. ; Bech J. ; Lorente J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 8 起始页码: 3024
结束页码: 3040
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Upper atmosphere
; Brewer-Dobson circulation
; Global circulation model
; Global-mean temperature
; Microwave sounding unit
; Overturning circulation
; Spatially inhomogeneous
; Stratospheric temperature
; Temperature observations
; Climate change
英文摘要: Most global circulation models and climate-chemistry models forced with increasing greenhouse gases predict a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the twenty-first century, and some of them claim that such strengthening has already begun at the end of the twentieth century. However, observational evidence for such a trend remains inconclusive. The goal of this paper is to examine the evidence for observed trends in the stratospheric overturning circulation using a suite of currently available observational stratospheric temperature data. Trends are examined as "departures"from the global mean temperature, since such trends reflect the effects of dynamics and spatially inhomogeneous radiative forcing and are to first order independent of the direct radiative effects of increasing well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations. The primary conclusion of the study is that temperature observations do not reveal statistically significant trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the period from 1979 to the present, as covered by Microwave Sounding Unit and Stratospheric Sounding Unit temperatures. The estimated trends in the BDC are weak in all datasets and not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. In many cases, different data products yield very different results, particularly when the trends are stratified by season. Implications for the interpretation of recent stratospheric climate change are discussed. The results illustrate the essential need to better constrain the accuracy of future stratospheric temperature datasets. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50554
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ossó A.,Sola Y.,Rosenlof K.,et al. How robust are trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation derived from observed stratospheric temperatures?[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(8)