DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00476.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944111700
论文题名: Seasonal-to-interannual variability of ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon. Part II: Statistical multimodel ensemble rainfall predictions
作者: Segele Z.T. ; Richman M.B. ; Leslie L.M. ; Lamb P.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 9 起始页码: 3511
结束页码: 3536
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Linear regression
; Mean square error
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Regression analysis
; Statistical methods
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Ensembles
; Forecasting techniques
; Hindcasts
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical forecasting
; Forecasting
; annual variation
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; numerical model
; probability
; weather forecasting
; Ethiopia
英文摘要: An ensemble-based multiple linear regression technique is developed to assess the predictability of regional and national June-September (JJAS) anomalies and local monthly rainfall totals for Ethiopia. The ensemble prediction approach captures potential predictive signals in regional circulations and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) two to three months in advance of the monsoon season. Sets of 20 potential predictors are selected from visual assessments of correlation maps that relate rainfall with regional and global predictors. Individual predictors in each set are utilized to initialize specific forward stepwise regression models to develop ensembles of equal number of statistical model estimates, which allow quantifying prediction uncertainties related to individual predictors and models. Prediction skill improvement is achieved through error minimization afforded by the ensemble. For retroactive validation (RV), the ensemble predictions reproduce well the observed all-Ethiopian JJAS rainfall variability two months in advance. The ensemble mean prediction outperforms climatology, with mean square error reduction (SSClim) of 62%. The skill of the prediction remains high for leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), with the observed-predicted correlation r (SSClim) being +0.81 (65%) for 1970-2002. For tercile predictions (below, near, and above normal), the ranked probability skill score is 0.45, indicating improvement compared to climatological forecasts. Similarly high prediction skill is found for local prediction of monthly rainfall total at Addis Ababa (r = +0.72) and Combolcha (r = +0.68), and for regional prediction of JJAS standardized rainfall anomalies for northeastern Ethiopia (r = +0.80). Compared to the previous generation of rainfall forecasts, the ensemble predictions developed in this paper show substantial value to benefit society. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50653
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Segele Z.T.,Richman M.B.,Leslie L.M.,et al. Seasonal-to-interannual variability of ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon. Part II: Statistical multimodel ensemble rainfall predictions[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(9)