| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00637.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84947583235
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| 论文题名: | Sea surface temperature thresholds for tropical cyclone formation |
| 作者: | Tory K.J.; Dare R.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 28, 期:20 | | 起始页码: | 8171
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| 结束页码: | 8183
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文摘要: | Almost 70 years ago a sea surface temperature (SST) threshold of 26°-27°C, below which tropical cyclones (TCs) did not form, was proposed, based on a qualitative assessment of warm-season global SST and known TC formation regions. This threshold was widely accepted without further testing, until a recent study suggested a threshold of 25.5°C. That study is revisited here by reexamining the SST for all global TC formations from 1981 to 2008 using (i) a broader range of SST threshold values, (ii) an improved method for identifying subtropical storms-any storm that forms poleward of the subtropical jet (STJ), and (iii) a range of TC formation gestation periods, which refers to a time interval prior to formation in which the SST threshold is exceeded for at least one 6-h period. Consequently, thresholds reported in this paper are expressed as a combination of SST and gestation period. Using the STJ position to identify and exclude subtropical storms, the threshold of 25.5°C SST-48-h gestation period was found to be robust, but conservative. An examination of TCs of questionable validity (e.g., weak, short lived, and/or storms that formed with baroclinic influences) revealed a further 26 storms (1.2%) that could arguably be excluded from the analysis. With these storms removed, several SST-gestation period threshold combinations were found to be valid, including 25.5°C-18 h and 26.5°C-36 h. A practical threshold combination of 26.5°C-24 h is proposed as only two additional storms failed to meet this threshold, which supports the often-quoted 26.5°C SST necessary condition for TC formation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50737
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Tory K.J.,Dare R.A.. Sea surface temperature thresholds for tropical cyclone formation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(20)
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