DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00309.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961297726
论文题名: Implications of Ural blocking for East Asian winter climate in CMIP5 GCMs. Part II: Projection and uncertainty in future climate conditions
作者: Cheung H.H.N. ; Zhou W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 6 起始页码: 2217
结束页码: 2233
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Mechanical waves
; Oceanography
; Regression analysis
; Sea ice
; Surface waters
; Asia
; Atmospheric response
; Blocking
; General circulation model
; Large-scale circulation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Siberian high indices
; Winter/cool seasons
; Uncertainty analysis
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; Rossby wave
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; trend analysis
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Kara
; Laptev Sea
; Togo
英文摘要: Multiple model ensembles (MMEs) of Ural blocking frequency in 20 CMIP5 GCMs show no apparent increase or decrease in RCP4.5 and 8.5 runs throughout the twenty-first century. However, a significant increasing or decreasing trend of the Ural blocking index (UBI) is identified in individual GCMs, and the trend appears to be correlated with the trend of the Siberian high index (SHI), which measures the East Asian winter climate. Regression analyses reveal that the trend of UBI is related to upstream circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region, such as the intensification of the Atlantic jet stream and the propagation of a quasistationary Rossby wave across Eurasia. In the late twenty-first century, the year-to-year variation of UBI appears to show a stronger linkage with the large-scale circulation over the Kara and Laptev Seas. Meanwhile, UB likely exerts a stronger impact on East Asia on synoptic and seasonal time scales. The uncertainty of UB might present a challenge for accurate prediction of the subseasonal and long-term variation of the East Asian winter climate. To further evaluate the uncertainty in projections of UB, additional work should assess the atmospheric response to the sea surface temperature over the Atlantic and the reduction of sea ice. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50760
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China
Recommended Citation:
Cheung H.H.N.,Zhou W.. Implications of Ural blocking for East Asian winter climate in CMIP5 GCMs. Part II: Projection and uncertainty in future climate conditions[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(6)