DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00470.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921674940
论文题名: Marine wind and wave height trends at different ERA-interim forecast ranges
作者: Aarnes O.J. ; Abdalla S. ; Bidlot J.-R. ; Breivik Ø.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 2 起始页码: 819
结束页码: 837
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economic and social effects
; Geodetic satellites
; Low pass filters
; Meteorological instruments
; Water waves
; Wind
; Altimeter data
; Altimeter winds
; Data assimilation
; Eastern tropical pacific
; In-situ measurement
; North Atlantic
; Significant wave height
; Wave modeling
; Forecasting
; data assimilation
; Envisat
; forecasting method
; satellite data
; trade wind
; wave height
; wind forcing
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Trends in marine wind speed and significant wave height are investigated using the global reanalysis ERA-Interim over the period 1979-2012, based on monthly-mean and monthly-maximum data. Besides the traditional reanalysis, the authors include trends obtained at different forecast range, available up to 10 days ahead. Any model biases that are corrected differently over time are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. However, at increased forecast range the model tends to relax, being less affected by assimilation. Still, there is a trade-off between removing the impact of data assimilation at longer forecast range and getting a lower level of uncertainty in the predictions at shorter forecast range. Because of the sheer amount of assimilations made in ERA-Interim, directly and indirectly affecting the data, it is difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish effects imposed by all updates. Here, special emphasis is put on the introduction of wave altimeter data in August 1991, the only type of data directly affecting the wave field. From this, it is shown that areas of higher model bias introduce quite different trends depending on forecast range, most apparent in the North Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific. Results are compared with 23 in situ measurements, Envisat altimeter winds, and two stand-aloneECMWFoperational wave model (EC-WAM) runs with and without wave altimeter assimilation. Here, the 48-h forecast is suggested to be a better candidate for trend estimates of wave height, mainly due to the step change imposed by altimeter observations. Even though wind speed seems less affected by undesirable step changes, the authors believe that the 24-48-h forecast more effectively filters out any unwanted effects. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: ESA, European Space Agency
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50836
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Aarnes O.J.,Abdalla S.,Bidlot J.-R.,et al. Marine wind and wave height trends at different ERA-interim forecast ranges[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(2)