DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00459.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84938325455
论文题名: Probabilistic concepts in a changing climate: A snapshot attractor picture
作者: Drótos G. ; Bódai T. ; Tél T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 8 起始页码: 3275
结束页码: 3288
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Probability distributions
; Changing climate
; Chaotic motions
; Convergence time
; Internal variability
; Low order models
; Natural distribution
; Temperature contrast
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; numerical model
; probability
英文摘要: The authors argue that the concept of snapshot attractors and of their natural probability distributions are the only available tools bymeans ofwhichmathematically sound statements can bemade about averages, variances, etc., for a given time instant in a changing climate. A basic advantage of the snapshot approach, which relies on the use of an ensemble, is that the natural distribution and thus any statistics based on it are independent of the particular ensemble used, provided it is initiated in the past earlier than a convergence time. To illustrate these concepts, a tutorial presentation is given within the framework of a low-order model in which the temperature contrast parameter over a hemisphere decreases linearly in time. Furthermore, the averages and variances obtained from the snapshot attractor approach are demonstrated to strongly differ from the traditional 30-yr temporal averages and variances taken along single realizations. The authors also claim that internal variability can be quantified by the natural distribution since it characterizes the chaotic motion represented by the snapshot attractor. This experience suggests that snapshot-attractor-based calculationsmight be appropriate to be evaluated in any large-scale climate model, and that the application of 30-yr temporal averages taken along single realizations should be complemented with this more appealing tool for the characterization of climate changes, which seems to be practically feasible with moderate ensemble sizes. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50882
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary; Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
Drótos G.,Bódai T.,Tél T.. Probabilistic concepts in a changing climate: A snapshot attractor picture[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(8)