DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897658793
论文题名: Seasonal climate variability and change in the pacific northwest of the united states
作者: Abatzoglou J.T. ; Rupp D.E. ; Mote P.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 5 起始页码: 2125
结束页码: 2142
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annual mean temperatures
; Climate variability and change
; Internal climate variability
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multiple linear regression models
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Seasonal precipitations
; Temporal heterogeneities
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Evapotranspiration
; Volcanoes
; Linear regression
; aerosol
; bootstrapping
; climate change
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; evapotranspiration
; heterogeneity
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; temperature anomaly
; twentieth century
; United States
英文摘要: Observed changes in climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest since the early twentieth century were examined using four different datasets. Annual mean temperature increased by approximately 0.6°-0.8°C from 1901 to 2012, with corroborating indicators including a lengthened freeze-free season, increased temperature of the coldest night of the year, and increased growing-season potential evapotranspiration. Seasonal temperature trends over shorter time scales (<50 yr) were variable. Despite increased warming rates in most seasons over the last half century, nonsignificant cooling was observed during spring from 1980 to 2012. Observations show a long-term increase in spring precipitation; however, decreased summer and autumn precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration have resulted in larger climatic water deficits over the past four decades. A bootstrapped multiple linear regression model was used to better resolve the temporal heterogeneity of seasonal temperature and precipitation trends and to apportion trends to internal climate variability, solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic forcing. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific-North American pattern were the primary modulators of seasonal temperature trends on multidecadal time scales: solar and volcanic forcing were nonsignificant predictors and contributed weakly to observed trends. Anthropogenic forcing was a significant predictor of, and the leading contributor to, long-term warming; natural factors alone fail to explain the observed warming. Conversely, poor model skill for seasonal precipitation suggests that other factors need to be considered to understand the sources of seasonal precipitation trends. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50935
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Abatzoglou J.T.,Rupp D.E.,Mote P.W.. Seasonal climate variability and change in the pacific northwest of the united states[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(5)