DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894636591
论文题名: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability
作者: Deser C. ; Phillips A.S. ; Alexander M.A. ; Smoliak B.V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 6 起始页码: 2271
结束页码: 2296
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Anomalies
; Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Trends
; Climate models
; anomaly
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; regional climate
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; North America
英文摘要: This study highlights the relative importance of internally generated versus externally forced climate trends over the next 50 yr (2010-60) at local and regional scales over North America in two global coupled model ensembles. Both ensembles contain large numbers of integrations (17 and 40): each of which is subject to identical anthropogenic radiative forcing (e.g., greenhouse gas increase) but begins from a slightly different initial atmospheric state. Thus, the diversity of projected climate trends within each model ensemble is due solely to intrinsic, unpredictable variability of the climate system. Both model ensembles show that natural climate variability superimposed upon forced climate change will result in a range of possible future trends for surface air temperature and precipitation over the next 50 yr. Precipitation trends are particularly subject to uncertainty as a result of internal variability, with signal-to-noise ratios less than 2. Intrinsic atmospheric circulation variability is mainly responsible for the spread in future climate trends, imparting regional coherence to the internally driven air temperature and precipitation trends. The results underscore the importance of conducting a large number of climate change projections with a given model, as each realization will contain a different superposition of unforced and forced trends. Such initial-condition ensembles are also needed to determine the anthropogenic climate response at local and regional scales and provide a new perspective on how to usefully compare climate change projections across models. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51048
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Deser C.,Phillips A.S.,Alexander M.A.,et al. Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(6)