Climate models
; Climatology
; Accumulation periods
; Extreme events
; Extreme value theory
; High resolution
; Low sensitivity
; Precipitation extremes
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Regional climate models
; Time measurement
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; extreme event
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; sensitivity analysis
; spatial resolution
英文摘要:
Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June-August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than the 1.5-km RCM, yet the 12-km RCM has overly large high return levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1.5-km RCM is more successful than the 12-km RCM in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events.As accumulation periods increase toward daily time scales, the erroneous 12-km precipitation extremes become more comparable with the observations and the 1.5-km RCM. The 12-km RCM fails to capture the observed low sensitivity of the growth rate to accumulation period changes, which is successfully captured by the 1.5-km RCM. Both simulations have comparable December-February (DJF) extremes, but the DJF extremes are generally weaker than in JJA at daily or shorter time scales. Case studies indicate that "gridpoint storms" are one of the causes of unrealistic very extreme events in the 12-km RCM. Caution is needed in interpreting the realism of 12-km RCM JJA extremes, including short-return-period events, which have return values closer to observations. There is clear evidence that the 1.5-km RCM has a higher degree of realism than the 12-km RCM in the simulation of JJA extremes.
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Chan S.C.,Kendon E.J.,Fowler H.J.,et al. The value of high-resolution Met Office regional climate models in the simulation of multihourly precipitation extremes[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(16)