DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00281.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888046766
论文题名: Multidecadal ENSO amplitude variability in a 1000-yr simulation of a coupled global climate model: Implications for observed ENSO variability
作者: Borlace S. ; Cai W. ; Santoso A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 23 起始页码: 9399
结束页码: 9407
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Amplitude variability
; Coupled global climate model
; Coupled interaction
; ENSO
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multidecadal variability
; Natural variability
; Tropical variability
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Modulation
; Temperature distribution
; Stream flow
; amplitude
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; feedback mechanism
; global climate
; thermocline
; zonal wind
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: The amplitude of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can vary naturally over multidecadal time scales and can be influenced by climate change. However, determining the mechanism for this variation is difficult because of the paucity of observations over such long time scales. Using a 1000-yr integration of a coupled global climate model and a linear stability analysis, it is demonstrated that multidecadal modulation of ENSO amplitude can be driven by variations in the governing dynamics. In this model, the modulation is controlled by the underlying thermocline feedback mechanism, which in turn is governed by the response of the oceanic thermocline slope across the equatorial Pacific to changes in the overlying basinwide zonal winds. Furthermore, the episodic strengthening and weakening of this coupled interaction is shown to be linked to the slowly varying background climate. In comparison with the model statistics, the recent change of ENSO amplitude in observations appears to be still within the range of natural variability. This is despite the apparent warming trend in the mean climate. Hence, this study suggests that it may be difficult to infer a climate change signal from changes in ENSO amplitude alone, particularly given the presently limited observational data. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51480
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Borlace S.,Cai W.,Santoso A.. Multidecadal ENSO amplitude variability in a 1000-yr simulation of a coupled global climate model: Implications for observed ENSO variability[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(23)