DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00744.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886243625
论文题名: High-resolution downscaled simulations of warm-season extreme precipitation events in the colorado front range under past and future climates
作者: Mahoney K. ; Alexander M. ; Scott J.D. ; Barsugli J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 21 起始页码: 8671
结束页码: 8689
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Convective storms
; Extreme events
; Meso-scale models
; Model evaluation/performance
; Regional model
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Moisture
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; convective system
; downscaling
; extreme event
; mesoscale meteorology
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; storm
; weather forecasting
; Colorado
; United States
英文摘要: A high-resolution case-based approach for dynamically downscaling climate model data is presented. Extreme precipitation events are selected from regional climate model (RCM) simulations of past and future time periods. Each event is further downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to storm scale (1.3-km grid spacing). The high-resolution downscaled simulations are used to investigate changes in extreme precipitation projections from a past to a future climate period, aswell as how projected precipitation intensity and distribution differ between the RCM scale (50-km grid spacing) and the local scale (1.3-km grid spacing). Three independent RCM projections are utilizedas initial and boundary conditions to the downscaled simulations, and the results reveal considerablespread in projected changes not only among the RCMs but also in the downscaled high-resolution simulations. However, even when the RCMprojections show an overall (i.e., spatially averaged) decrease in the intensity of extreme events, localized maxima in the high-resolution simulations of extreme eventscan remain as strong or even increase. An ingredients-based analysis of prestorm instability, moisture, and forcing for ascent illustrates that while instability and moisture tend to increase in the future simulations at both regional and local scales, local forcing, synoptic dynamics, and terrain-relative winds are quite variable. Nuanced differences in larger-scale and mesoscale dynamics are a key determinant in each event's resultant precipitation. Very high-resolution dynamical downscaling enables a more detailed representation of extreme precipitation events and their relationship to their surrounding environments with fewer parameterization-based uncertainties and provides a framework fordiagnosing climate model errors. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; EPA, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51588
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/ESRL, and CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mahoney K.,Alexander M.,Scott J.D.,et al. High-resolution downscaled simulations of warm-season extreme precipitation events in the colorado front range under past and future climates[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(21)