globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00850.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885335194
论文题名:
Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: Results from CMIP5 models
作者: Scoccimarro E.; Gualdi S.; Bellucci A.; Zampieri M.; Navarra A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:20
起始页码: 7902
结束页码: 7911
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boreal winters ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Ensemble averages ; Heavy precipitation ; Precipitation distribution ; South America ; Twentieth century ; Winter seasons ; Climatology ; Climate models ; climate change ; climate modeling ; precipitation (climatology) ; twentieth century ; warming ; Central Africa ; India ; Indonesia ; South America ; Southern Africa
英文摘要: In this work, the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the twenty-first century and the twentieth century, assuming the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, the authors use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both boreal summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on models from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, SoutheastAsia, Indonesia, and centralAfrica during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51603
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Scoccimarro E.,Gualdi S.,Bellucci A.,et al. Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: Results from CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(20)
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