DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884919499
论文题名: CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions
作者: Seth A. ; Rauscher S.A. ; Biasutti M. ; Giannini A. ; Camargo S.J. ; Rojas M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 19 起始页码: 7328
结束页码: 7351
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic forcing
; Competing mechanisms
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Coupled models
; Ensembles
; Monsoons
; Precipitation change
; Water budget
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Evaporation
; Moisture
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; annual variation
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric moisture
; boundary layer
; climate change
; ensemble forecasting
; evaporation
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; troposphere
; water budget
英文摘要: Analyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments show that the global monsoon is expected to increase in area, precipitation, and intensity as the climate system responds to anthropogenic forcing. Concurrently, detailed analyses for several individual monsoons indicate a redistribution of rainfall from early to late in the rainy season. This analysis examines CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions, using a moist static energy framework to evaluate competing mechanisms identified to be important in precipitation changes over land. In the presence of sufficient surface moisture, the local response to the increase in downwelling energy is characterized by increased evaporation, increased low-level moist static energy, and decreased stability with consequent increases in precipitation. A remote mechanism begins with warmer oceans and operates on land regions via a warmer tropical troposphere, increased stability, and decreased precipitation. The remote mechanism controls the projected changes during winter, and the local mechanism controls the switch to increased precipitation during summer in most monsoon regions. During the early summer transition, regions where boundary layer moisture availability is reduced owing to decreases in evaporation and moisture convergence experience an enhanced convective barrier. Regions characterized by adequate evaporation and moisture convergence do not experience reductions in early summer precipitation. This enhanced convective barrier leads to a redistribution of rainfall from early to late summer, and is robust in the American and African monsoons but muddled in Asia. As described here, viewing monsoons from their inherent ties to the annual cycle could help to fingerprint changes as they evolve. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51638
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, U-4148 215 Glenbrook Rd., Storrs, CT 06269, United States; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, Mexico; Columbia University, NY, United States; University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Recommended Citation:
Seth A.,Rauscher S.A.,Biasutti M.,et al. CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(19)