DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881262616
论文题名: A multimodel assessment of future projections of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models
作者: Zappa G. ; Shaffrey L.C. ; Hodges K.I. ; Sansom P.G. ; Stephenson D.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 16 起始页码: 5846
结束页码: 5862
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emission scenario
; Extratropical cyclones
; Future projections
; Mediterranean sea
; Precipitation intensity
; Sources of uncertainty
; Statistical framework
; Climate change
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; extratropical environment
; precipitation intensity
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the responses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December-February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June-August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (-4%) and JJA (-2%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cyclones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51728
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Zappa G.,Shaffrey L.C.,Hodges K.I.,et al. A multimodel assessment of future projections of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(16)