DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00512.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878976531
论文题名: Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices?
作者: Hanlon H.M. ; Hegerl G.C. ; Tett S.F.B. ; Smith D.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 11 起始页码: 3728
结束页码: 3744
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bias correction
; Decadal predictions
; External forcing
; Forecasting system
; Maximum and minimum temperatures
; Summer temperature
; Temperature extremes
; Temperature index
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; air temperature
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; extreme event
; Hadley cell
; weather forecasting
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Daily maximum and minimum summer temperatures have increased throughout the majority of Europe over the past few decades, along with the frequency and intensity of heat waves. It is essential to learn whether this rise is expected to continue in the future for adaptation purposes. A study of predictability of European temperature indices with the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) has revealed significant skill in predictions of 5- and 10-yr average indices of the summer mean and maximum 5-day average temperatures based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures for a large area of Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean. In contrast, the decadal forecasts of winter mean/minimum 5-day average temperature indices show poorer skill than the summer indices. Significant skill is shown for the United Kingdom in some cases but less than for the European/Mediterranean regions. Comparison of two parallel ensembles, one initialized with observations and one without initialization, has shown that the skill largely originates from external forcing. However, there were a few cases with hints of additional skill in forecasts of decadal mean indices due to the initialization. Model realizations of extreme indices can have large biases compared to observations that are different from those of the mean climate indices. Several methods were tested for correcting biases, as well as for testing the significance and quantifying uncertainty of the results to rule out cases of spurious skill. Bias correction of each index individually is required as biases vary across different extremes. ©2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51824
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hanlon H.M.,Hegerl G.C.,Tett S.F.B.,et al. Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices?[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(11)