DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00531.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878555530
论文题名: Detectability of changes in the walker circulation in response to global warming
作者: DiNezio P.N. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Clement A.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 12 起始页码: 4038
结束页码: 4048
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Coupled models
; Model comparison
; Radiative forcings
; Southern oscillation
; Aerosols
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Experiments
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Sea level
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
; pressure gradient
; radiative forcing
; sea level pressure
; sea surface temperature
; Southern Oscillation
; Walker circulation
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: Changes in the gradients in sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) along the equatorial Pacific are analyzed in observations and 101 numerical experiments performed with 37 climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The ensemble of numerical experiments simulates changes in the earth's climate during the 2004-1870 period in response to changes in natural (solar variations and volcanoes) and anthropogenic (well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, direct aerosol forcing, and land use) radiative forcings. A reduction in the zonal SLP gradient is present in observational records and is the typical response of the ensemble, yet only 26 out of the 101 experiments exhibit a reduced SLP gradient within 95% statistical confidence of the observed value. The multimodel response indicates a reduction of the Walker circulation to historical forcings, albeit an order of magnitude smaller than the observed value. There are multiple nonexclusive interpretations of these results: (i) the observed trend may not be entirely forced and includes a substantial component from internal variability; (ii) there are problems with the observational record that lead to a spuriously large trend; and (iii) the strength of theWalker circulation, as measured by the zonal SLP gradient, may be less sensitive to external forcing in models than in the real climate system. Analysis of a subset of experiments suggests that greenhouse gases act to weaken the circulation, but aerosol forcing drives a strengthening of the circulation, which appears to be overestimated by the models, resulting in a muted response to the combined anthropogenic forcings. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51827
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
DiNezio P.N.,Vecchi G.A.,Clement A.C.. Detectability of changes in the walker circulation in response to global warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(12)