globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874927721
论文题名:
Is an epic pluvial masking the water insecurity of the greater New York city region
作者: Pederson N.; Bell A.R.; Cook E.R.; Lall U.; Devineni N.; Seager R.; Eggleston K.; Vranes K.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期:4
起始页码: 1339
结束页码: 1354
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Hydroclimatic ; Liriodendron tulipifera ; Meteorological data ; Multiple trees ; Palmer drought severity indices ; Reconstruction techniques ; Tree-ring chronologies ; Water insecurity ; Forestry ; Meteorology ; Water conservation ; Water supply systems ; Drought ; correlation ; drought ; moisture ; precipitation (climatology) ; seventeenth century ; tree ring ; water supply ; watershed ; Climates ; Drought ; Forestry ; Moisture Content ; New York ; Water Consumption ; Water Management ; Water Supply ; New York [New York (STT)] ; New York [United States] ; United States ; Betula lenta ; Carya ; Liriodendron tulipifera
英文摘要: Six water emergencies have occurred since 1981 for the New York City (NYC) region despite the following: 1) its perhumid climate, 2) substantial conservation of water since 1979, and 3) meteorological data showing little severe or extreme drought since 1970. This study reconstructs 472 years of moisture availability for the NYC watershed to place these emergencies in long-term hydroclimatic context. Using nested reconstruction techniques, 32 tree-ring chronologies comprised of 12 species account for up to 66.2% of the average May-August Palmer drought severity index. Verification statistics indicate good statistical skill from 1531 to 2003. The use of multiple tree species, including rarely used species that can sometimes occur on mesic sites like Liriodendron tulipifera, Betula lenta, and Carya spp., seems to aid reconstruction skill. Importantly, the reconstruction captures pluvial events in the instrumental record nearly as well as drought events and is significantly correlated to precipitation over much of the northeastern United States. While the mid-1960s drought is a severe drought in the context of the new reconstruction, the region experienced repeated droughts of similar intensity, but greater duration during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The full record reveals a trend toward more pluvial conditions since ca. 1800 that is accentuated by an unprecedented 43-yr pluvial event that continues through 2011. In the context of the current pluvial, decreasing water usage, but increasing extra-urban pressures, it appears that the water supply system for the greaterNYCregion could be severely stressed if the current water boom shifts toward hydroclimatic regimes like the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52000
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Tree Ring Laboratory of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, P.O. Box 1000, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, NY, United States; Columbia Water Center, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Northeast Regional, Climate Center, Ithaca, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Pederson N.,Bell A.R.,Cook E.R.,et al. Is an epic pluvial masking the water insecurity of the greater New York city region[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(4)
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