| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84874879136
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| 论文题名: | Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia |
| 作者: | Dowdy A.J.; Mills G.A.; Timbal B.; Wang Y.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 26, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1403
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| 结束页码: | 1417
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Diagnostic methods
; Eastern Australia
; Extratropical cyclones
; Global climate model
; Interannual variability
; Oceanic variabilities
; Seasonal variability
; Spatial resolution
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Storms
; climate modeling
; cyclone
; extratropical environment
; greenhouse gas
; risk assessment
; Australia
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| 英文摘要: | The east coast of Australia is a region of the world where a particular type of extratropical cyclone, known locally as an east coast low, frequently occurs with severe consequences such as extreme rainfall, winds, and waves. The likelihood of formation of these storms is examined using an upper-tropospheric diagnostic applied to three reanalyses and three global climate models (GCMs). Strong similarities exist among the results derived from the individual reanalyses in terms of their seasonal variability (e.g., winter maxima and summer minima) and interannual variability. Results from reanalyses indicate that the threshold value used in the diagnostic method is dependent on the spatial resolution. Results obtained when applying the diagnostic to two of the three GCMs are similar to expectations given their spatial resolutions, and produce seasonal cycles similar to those from the reanalyses. Applying the methodology to simulations from these two GCMs for both current and future climate in response to increases in greenhouse gases indicates a reduction in extratropical cyclone occurrence of about 30% from the late twentieth century to the late twenty-first century for eastern Australia. In addition to the absolute risk of formation of these extratropical cyclones, spatial climatologies of occurrence are examined for the broader region surrounding eastern Australia. The influence of large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability on the occurrence of these storms in this region is also discussed. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52039
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Dowdy A.J.,Mills G.A.,Timbal B.,et al. Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(4)
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