| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00735.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84870051014
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| 论文题名: | Consensus on climate trends in Western North pacific tropical cyclones |
| 作者: | Kang N.-Y.; Elsner J.B.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 25, 期:21 | | 起始页码: | 7564
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| 结束页码: | 7573
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate trends
; Data-sources
; Japan meteorological agencies
; Meteorological agency
; Probability levels
; Tropical cyclone
; Warning centers
; Western North Pacific
; Wind speed
; Wind effects
; Hurricanes
; climate variation
; hurricane
; trend analysis
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; wind velocity
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
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| 英文摘要: | Research on trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is limited by problems associated with different wind speed conversions used by the various meteorological agencies. This paper uses a quantile method to effectively overcome this conversion problem. Following the assumption that the intensity ranks of TCs are the same among agencies, quantiles at the same probability level in different data sources are regarded as having the same wind speed level. Tropical cyclone data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are chosen for research and comparison. Trends are diagnosed for the upper 45% of the strongest TCs annually. The 27-yr period beginning with 1984, when the JMA began using the Dvorak (1982) technique, is determined to be the most reliable for achievingconsensus among the two agencies regarding these trends. The start year is a compromise between including as many years in the data as possible, but not so many that the period includes observations that result in inconsistent trend estimates. The consensus of TC trends between the two agencies over the period is interpreted as fewer but stronger events since 1984, even with the lower power dissipation index (PDI) in the western North Pacific in recent years. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52153
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kang N.-Y.,Elsner J.B.. Consensus on climate trends in Western North pacific tropical cyclones[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(21)
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