DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00392.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84869786873
论文题名: Simulated relationships between sea surface temperatures and tropical convection in climate models and their implications for tropical cyclone activity
作者: Evans J.L. ; Waters J.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 22 起始页码: 7884
结束页码: 7895
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric CO
; Convective precipitation
; Coupled general circulation models
; Deep tropical convection
; Fully-coupled
; Future climate
; General circulation model
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Global tropics
; Meteorological research institutes
; Ocean model
; Outgoing longwave radiation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperatures
; Tropical convection
; Tropical cyclogenesis
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Tropical zones
; Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Heat convection
; Hurricane effects
; Tropical engineering
; Tropics
; Carbon dioxide
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; atmospheric convection
; carbon dioxide
; climate modeling
; general circulation model
; longwave radiation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; tropical cyclone
; tropical region
英文摘要: The impact of enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations on tropical convection and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the global tropics is assessed using five fully coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs). Relationships between SST and either outgoing longwave radiation or convective precipitation rates are evaluated for three climate states: present day, a doubled-CO2 scenario, and a quadrupled-CO2 scenario. All AOGCMs capture a relationship between present-day outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and SST and between convective precipitation rate (PRC) and SST: deep tropical convection (DTC)-signified by rapidly decreasing OLR and rapidly increasing PRC rates-occurs above an SST threshold of around 25°C. Consistent across allAOGCMs, as concentrations increase to 2×CO2 and 4×CO2, the threshold SSTs for DTC to occur shift to 25.5°-28°C and 26.5°-30°C, respectively. Annual PRC rates in the 20°N-20°S region increase for two AOGCMs [Meteorological Research Institute Coupled General Circulation Model, version 2.3.2 (MRI CGCM2.3.2) and ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM)] with increasing CO2, but PRC in the other three AOGCMs [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model versions 2.0 and 2.1 (GFDL CM2.0 and CM2.1) and National Center for AtmosphericResearch (NCAR) Parallel ClimateModel (PCM)] exhibits almost no change. Within this tropical zone, increased CO2 concentrations yield up to a 6.1% increase in the number of locations with monthly averaged PRC exceeding two established DTC thresholds (12 and 14 mm day-1). These results indicate that, although the SST threshold for DTC is projected to shift with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, there will not be an expansion of regions experiencing DTC. One implication of these findings is that there will be little change in regions experiencing tropical cyclogenesis in future climate states. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52163
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Evans J.L.,Waters J.J.. Simulated relationships between sea surface temperatures and tropical convection in climate models and their implications for tropical cyclone activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(22)