DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00526.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867671626
论文题名: Selecting ensemble members to provide regional climate change information
作者: McSweeney C.F. ; Jones R.G. ; Booth B.B.B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 20 起始页码: 7100
结束页码: 7121
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Asia
; Asian summer monsoons
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Down-scaling
; Dynamical downscaling
; Ensemble members
; Ensembles
; Future climate
; Future projections
; High resolution
; Mean field
; Model evaluation
; Model prediction
; Regional climate
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate modeling systems
; Regional effects
; Regional response
; Sampling strategies
; Southeast Asia
; Viet Nam
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Automatic indexing
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Design of experiments
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; experimental design
; general circulation model
; regional climate
; Asia
英文摘要: Climate model ensembles, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), are used to characterize broadscale ranges of projected regional climate change and their impacts. The 17-member Hadley Centre perturbed physics GCM ensemble [Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions ("QUMP")] extends this capability by including data enabling dynamical downscaling of these ranges, and similar data are now being made available from the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs. These raise new opportunities to provide and apply high-resolution regional climate projections. This study highlights the importance of employing a well-considered sampling strategy from available ensembles to provide scientifically credible information on regional climate change while minimizing the computational complexity of ensemble downscaling. A subset of the QUMP ensemble is selected for a downscaling program in Vietnam using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate modeling system. Multiannual mean fields from each GCM are assessed with a focus on the Asian summer monsoon, given its importance to proposed applications of the projections. First, the study examines whether any model should be eliminated because significant deficiencies in its simulation may render its future climate projections unrealistic. No evidence is found to eliminate any of the 17 GCMs on these grounds. Second, the range of their future projections is explored and five models that best represent the full range of future climates are identified. The subset characterizes the range of both global and regional responses, and patterns of rainfall response, the wettest and driest projections for Vietnam, and different projected Asian summer monsoon changes. How these ranges of responses compare with those in the CMIP3 ensemble are also assessed, finding differences in both the signal and the spread of results in Southeast Asia. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52202
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
McSweeney C.F.,Jones R.G.,Booth B.B.B.. Selecting ensemble members to provide regional climate change information[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(20)