DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00420.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84865158738
论文题名: On the classification of extreme atlantic hurricanes utilizing mid-twentieth-century monitoring capabilities
作者: Hagen A.B. ; Landsea C.W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 13 起始页码: 4461
结束页码: 4475
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic global warming
; Atlantic hurricane
; Atmospheric observations
; Climate record
; Hurricane activity
; Landfalling
; Monitoring capabilities
; Surface observation
; Tropical cyclone
; Variability analysis
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Reconnaissance aircraft
; Hurricanes
; climatology
; extreme event
; global warming
; hurricane
; monitoring
; tropical cyclone
; twentieth century
; typhoon
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: An investigation is conducted to determine how improvements in observing capabilities and technology may have affected scientists' ability to detect and monitor Saffir-Simpson HurricaneWind Scale Category 5 hurricanes in theAtlanticOcean basin during the mid-twentieth century. Previous studies state that there has been an increase in the number of intense hurricanes and attribute this increase to anthropogenic global warming. Other studies claim that the apparent increased hurricane activity is an artifact of better observational capabilities and improved technology for detecting these intense hurricanes. The present study focuses on the 10 most recent Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, from Hurricane Andrew (1992) through Hurricane Felix (2007). These 10 hurricanes are placed into the context of the technology available in the period of 1944-53, the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance. Amethodology is created to determine how many of these 10 recentCategory 5 hurricanes likely would have been recorded as Category 5 if they had occurred during this period using only the observations that likely would have been available with existing technology and observational networks. Late-1940s and early-1950s best-track intensities are determined for the entire lifetime of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes. It is found that likely only 2 of these 10-both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes-would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period. The results suggest that intensity estimates for extreme tropical cyclones prior to the satellite era are unreliable for trend and variability analysis. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52315
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hagen A.B.,Landsea C.W.. On the classification of extreme atlantic hurricanes utilizing mid-twentieth-century monitoring capabilities[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(13)