DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00409.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862102117
论文题名: Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration
作者: Ohba M. ; Watanabe M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 9 起始页码: 3321
结束页码: 3335
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boreal Spring
; Cold phasis
; Coupled general circulation models
; ENSO
; Indian ocean
; Probability forecasts
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Seasonal forecasting
; SST anomalies
; Western Pacific
; Atmospheric pressure
; Experiments
; Forecasting
; Nickel compounds
; asymmetry
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; general circulation model
; La Nina
; probability
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoingENSOevolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of theENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52399
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Ohba M.,Watanabe M.. Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(9)