DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00209.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859951862
论文题名: The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM
作者: Chevallier M. ; Salas-Mélia D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 8 起始页码: 3025
结束页码: 3038
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Arctic sea ice
; Area prediction
; Critical thickness
; Diagnostic approach
; Freeze-up
; Ice thickness
; Ice volumes
; Model and observation
; Pan-Arctic
; Pre-industrial
; Prediction systems
; Sea ice models
; Sea-ice thickness
; Sub-grids
; Time-scales
; Volume anomalies
; Winter sea ices
; Thickness control
; Sea ice
; general circulation model
; ice cover
; ice margin
; ice thickness
; numerical model
; observational method
; prediction
; sea ice
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: The intrinsic seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice is investigated in a 400-yr-long preindustrial simulation performed with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global ClimateModel, version 3.3 (CNRM-CM3.3). The skill of several predictors of the pan-Arctic sea ice area was quantified: the sea ice area itself, the pan-Arctic sea ice volume, and some areal predictors built from the subgrid ice thickness distribution (ITD). Sea ice area provides a potential predictability of about 3 months, which is consistent with previous studies using model and observation data. Sea ice volume predictive skill for winter sea ice area prediction is weak. Nevertheless, there is a higher potential to predict the September ice area with the June volume anomaly than with the June area anomaly. Using ITD-based predictors, two "regimes" of predictabilitywere highlighted. The first one, a "persistence regime," applies to winter/early spring sea ice seasonal predictability. The winter sea ice cover can be predicted in late fall/early winter from the amount of young ice formed since the freeze-up onset in the margins. However, sea ice area itself is potentially the best predictor of winter sea ice area at seasonal time scales. The second regime is a "memory regime." It applies to the predictability of summer sea ice area. An ice area anomaly in September is potentially predictable up to 6 months in advance, using the area covered by ice thicker than a critical thickness lying between 0.9 and 1.5 m. Results of this study are preliminary; however, they provide information for the design of future prediction systems and highlight the need for observations and a state-of-the-art sea ice model. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52460
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphére Météorologique, Centre National de Recherches Météorologique Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Chevallier M.,Salas-Mélia D.. The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(8)